Property crime in the South Caucasus - Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

The paper aims to determine the various variables affecting property crimes (theft, robbery, burglary) in the South Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia). For this purpose, we used panel data from three countries - registered property crimes from 1997-2018. Through the first difference estimator of the GMM, we studied the effect of deterrence, socio-economic, geographical and other variables on the property crime rates. The analysis revealed that past crime and urbanisation have a positive effect on property crime. In contrast, the clear-up rate and real wage change have negative ones.  However, as for other economic variables used in the empirical analysis, the study does not confirm a statistically significant relationship, which may be explained by these countries' economic development levels.